A Well-Preserved Fossil

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5

Panic 2008... Profit 2009!

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Fossil (Nasdaq: FOSL) pulled off a pretty decent third quarter, but as is common these days, it wasn't able to give a very rosy outlook for the fourth quarter.

Third-quarter net income increased 19.8% to $36.5 million, or $0.54 per share, for the company, which sells handbags, watches, and other accessories. Net sales increased 14.3% to $409.8 million. Fossil was able to boast that its margin expansion helped it report a 31.5% increase in operating income.

Yeah, you guessed it: There's some malaise, too, and that's Fossil's fourth-quarter outlook. Like many other companies, Fossil said that since the third quarter, "business conditions have grown more challenging." In addition to the weak economy, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar is hurting results.

Expect fourth-quarter earnings of $0.70 per share, compared to previous guidance for earnings of $0.94 to $0.97 per share.

Maybe investors won't feel too comforted, but compared to some of the tidings out there, they might count themselves fortunate. You've probably noticed the laundry list of companies that have done everything from slash guidance or even withdraw guidance altogether because of extremely weak consumer spending.

And of course, there have been some third-quarter earnings reports that showed pretty memorable decreases in quarterly profit, too, so Fossil's results don't seem too bad. For the long term, I'd say Fossil looks like a good stock idea for several reasons, not least of which is the fact that it has $125.2 million in cash, and negligible debt.

While many luxury-brand companies may have near-term troubles, one thing Fossil has going for it is that it provides its goods at a variety of price points -- including very reasonable ones. If consumers decide they just can't afford stuff from Coach (NYSE: COH), Blue Nile (Nasdaq: NILE), or Tiffany (NYSE: TIF), they might decide to go with some less pricey accessories from Fossil. Personally, I've always liked Fossil's watches and handbags and didn't feel like I was breaking the bank, so I see it as a reasonable trade-down for consumers who are increasingly finding themselves on tight budgets.   

Fossil isn't immune to the economic headwinds hitting many consumer-oriented companies, to be sure. However, I think this stock, which is trading at just eight times earnings and has been beaten up just like many other similar stocks, is certainly worth investors' consideration.

We dug up some related Foolishness on Fossil:

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Fossil is a Motley Fool Hidden Gems selection, Blue Nile is a Rule Breakers pick, and Coach is a Stock Advisor recommendation. Try any of our Foolish newsletters today, free for 30 days.

Alyce Lomax does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

  • Report this Comment On November 13, 2008, at 11:48 AM, jst1958 wrote:

    I agree with your assessment of Fossil. Even a more dramatic downturn in forward business does not endanger the company given their strong balance sheet and cash flow. They will be around for the long haul. Fossil is arguably the number one design, development, and distribution company for watch based product. For the Fossil Brand this product is effectively jewelry that happens to tell time so don't let naysayers who speak of the demise of the wristwatch convince you that the company has a product category issue. Moderate priced attractive time keeping "jewelry" should be a nice gift this Christmas and will be a viable product as long as humans walk the earth.

    In addition the company has 20+ year relationships with watch component manufacturers in China and do their own assembly. In the near term the recession in China should allow Fossil to continue to improve on the COGS side of their profitability equation. In the long term they have retooled their flagship Fossil brand, have dialed in their lifestyle accessory concept under this brand, and have Watch Station in their back pocket as multiple brand watch direct to consumer play. Their management and their products have been deployed in the international arena for years and they have long term growth opportunities in Europe and Asia through direct to consumer channels. This is a $3.0 billion company in 3 years with leveraged infrastructure and improved product margins. I likeee!

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Fossil, Inc.

CAPS Rating 4/5 Stars

$17.08

-0.29 (-1.67%)

Outperform268

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